By Omotoso Okeya
In concurrence with the struggles that characterise the forthcoming governorship election in Ekiti State, Third Force can be defined as a new political party, faction or group struggling to take power from the two dominant opposing political parties (PDP & APC) in order to bring a radical change to the status quo.
However, it is interesting to note that many people are curious to know what difference would a Third Force make in Ekiti politics this time around.
In America since 1960s, no third force has made any significant impact on the politics of the country. Hence, many people never thought that America is a multi party democracy because of the perpetual dominance of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in all elections. Britain is equally synonymous with the Conservative and the Labour Parties at the expense of other political parties in the country.
In Nigeria, the political orders have been following the trend of a two-party system since independence, which is the major reason the then military President Badamosi Babangida foisted the Social Democratic Party and the Republican Party on the country during his political experimentation. Since 1999 two political parties have been dominating the dispensations as well.
Of course, it is a known fact that only two political parties (PDP & APC) have produced Nigerian presidents and the majority of the governors, senators, etc since 1999.
Some opinion leaders and political pundits are not obviously comfortable with the dominance of just two political parties out of others that were legitimately registered.
Hence, rigorous efforts were made by the former President Olusegun Obasanjo and other politicians, such as Olisa Agbakoba, Pat Utomi, Oby Ezekwesili, Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu, Dunald Duke, Omoyele Sowore, etc, to float and contest on a third force platform as alternative to PDP and APC, most especially now that Nigeria is bedeviled by myriad of security challenges. unfortunately, all their agitations have evidently come to naught because of the usual problems associated with the idea.
Third Force has not made headway in most cases because of lack of financial muscles to endear itself to the electorates ahead of elections. Analysts are of the opinion that the idea of Third Force failed in 2019 because its proponents did not have the structure and funds to oust both the APC and the PDP (The Guardian, 28 Sept, 2020).
There is no doubt, election is a money consuming venture all over the world. Apart from illegitimate spending on vote buying, candidates and their parties will definitely need money for publicity, transportation, meetings, security, etc.
Generally, many people find it difficult to accept a new party because they primarily joined political parties for financial gains which the new parties with shallow pockets may not be able to satisfy.
Again, many Third Force formed at the eleventh hour are products or association of aggrieved and utopian elites who are looking for the means of getting a part of the national cake.
Third Force usually lacks strategic planning, enduring organisational capacity, winning ideas and support base of the grassroots. Efforts at the grave sides can no longer wake the dead. And, the moment a Third Force fails to win elections, it goes into oblivion.
It is completely doubtful if the ongoing Third Force agenda in Ekiti State will take any radical departure from what other Third Force before now had suffered with the look of things.
Engineer Segun Oni as the governorship candidate and anchor of Third Force in Ekiti does not evidently have the huge financial resources required to execute the venture. Petty borrowings and assistance from friends have not been helping the situation.
Moreover, election is a test of popularity. Engr. Oni has not practically tested his popularity in any election. He is only bathing in untested and assumed political popularity. He has no record of election victories in Ekiti State or elsewhere.
Engr. Oni was foisted on the PDP as governorship candidate in 2007, but his election as governor was eventually upturned by the court after spending three and a half years in government.
He later defected to the APC, and in 2018 with all the much orchestrated popularity, he lost the APC governorship primary to Dr Kayode Fayemi and also the PDP’s to Bisi Kolawole in 2022. What a practical and serial pedigree of electoral failures! Then, any evidence of his popularity ?
Without any doubt, my critics are not unlikely to cite the election of Dr Olusegun Mimiko in the Labour Party against my submissions.
Unlike Segun Oni, Mimiko actually suffered a high level of injustice and victimisation in the PDP with the support of President Obasanjo because Mimiko resigned from his cabinet as federal minister against his wishes to contest the 2007 Ondo State governorship election with Dr Olusegun Agagu.
It was almost the entire PDP structure of the then Ondo State PDP that showed sympathy to Mimiko and moved with him to a new party where he eventually achieved his governorship ambition after a prolonged legal battle for about two years. Importantly, Mimiko had a strong political and financial base ahead of his election.
Engr. Oni couldn’t be followed to a new party by many of his followers and associates, arguing that he lost a freely, fairly and credibly conducted primary in the PDP where he had been given every opportunity in the past. For instance, Dr Sikiru Lawal, the former deputy of Oni and a host of others remain in the PDP, working for Bisi Kolawole, the PDP candidate and former ally of Oni as well.
Furthermore, the struggles and agitations of the Third Force in Ekiti conspicuously lack empirical spread and strong political base. For instance, Ado as the city with the highest voting strength in Ekiti is predominantly a PDP strong base since 1999 which is not likely to be won by any other party in the forthcoming election for certain security reasons.
Ikere is next to Ado in voting strength but Engr. Oni has a fundamental problem with Ikere as a municipal local government during his stint as governor. Oni evidently and apparently showed apathy to Ikere vis-à-vis the politics of University location and relocation of the College of Education that was sited in the town since 1977. The then Ogoga of Ikere, Oba Adegboye Akayejo, was seriously disturbed during the struggles while many notable people most especially the staffers of the College of Education who were struggling to defend the source of their livelihood were killed.
Hence, Ikere may not likely show interest in any candidate that may eventually relocate their new University after his election. You know, they equally have the opinion that, Oni as a politician may not relocate the University but can strangulate it financially because he may still be tenaciously adhering to his theory and policy that the College of Education cannot coexist with the University in Ikere. Oni is known for his uncommon rigidity.
The APC government of Kayode Fayemi equally made the sons and daughters of Ikere to pay heavily before locating the Bamidele Olumilua University of Education, Science and Technology in the town.
And, since its establishment no single infrastructure has been added to the campus of the College of Education used by the government of Fayemi, whereas, the people of Fayemi’s town (Isan) didn’t pay a kobo in spite of billions of naira his government is expending on infrastructures in the College of Agriculture which has been converted into a Polytechnic in the town.
Ikole as the town with the third highest voting capacity has a crop of formidable and grassroots politicians both in the APC and the PDP who won’t allow any third force to thrive.
The foregoing analysis has not underrated the importance and contributions of other towns and villages in Ekiti to electoral victory of any candidate. But, for any candidate to sail through in governorship elections, the need for a credible performance in the areas such as Ado, Ikere and Ikole with huge votes cannot be over emphasised. The areas are important in determining the overall result of a governorship election.
Finally, it is not fair to ignore the fact that, some voters have had the logos of the old political parties permanently engrained in their memory for one reason or the other.
Come rain or shine they will search for their darling logos at the voting point. Also, without mentioning any name, Ekiti people will not forget in a hurry the history of those politicians who defected and sought elections in new parties just to satisfy an ambition at all cost.
Omotoso Okeya
Journalist, Author & Public Affairs Analyst