By Wasiu Owolewa
As the Gubernatorial election in Ekiti draws nearer, there is the need to take a critical look at the winning chances of the parties. To effectively do this, I will narrow my assessment to the three leading political parties in this contest which are APC, PDP, and SDP.
Let’s take a look at their chances one after the other:
The Social Democratic Party, (SDP), which is referred to as the third force, is one of the parties contesting the upcoming governorship election in Ekiti State. Its flag-bearer is the former Governor of Ekiti State, Chief Segun Oni. The defection of Chief Segun Oni and some of his aggrieved followers from the PDP and APC seems to have put the party in a state that looks attractive in the eyes of the people.
However, in the eyes of many political analysts, the chances of the party coasting to victory in the forthcoming gubernatorial election looks very slim and unrealizable. This is because all the deciding factors that make a party strong and look good in preparation for an election are not in place at the moment. These are the structure of the party, its funding capacity, and federal strength.
This is because to determine the winner of an election in most democracies, particularly in a country like ours, all these deciding factors are pre-eminent.
Until recently, the SDP has no record of political history in Ekiti State or any part of the country. To say the least, the party was born out of political expediency and therefore can be better described as a child of circumstances angrily put together without any structure either at the State or Ward levels by his promoters. The main focus of the party in the eyes of many political analysts is concocted towards wrestling power from the incumbent government of the All Progressive Congress, APC, all in the assumed strength and popularity of its Chief promoter, Chief Olusegun Oni.
Being a new party struggling to have a viable structure at the state and ward levels, maybe a hurdle for the party ahead of the upcoming governorship election in Ekiti State which is less than two months away.
Another key factor that may militate against the chances of the party is the lack of financial strength. Money is a necessary component of any democracy: it enables political participation, campaigning, and representation. The amount of money needed to finance elections in any democracy is no doubt huge. In the present democracy of ours, no matter how good or popular a candidate is, a huge amount of funds is still required for effective campaigns and logistics.
Another hurdle in the way of the SDP is the lack of a federal structure that can help it galvanize maximum and expected solidarity that can help it win the election. As a new party with no federal structure to support it might be very difficult to spring up any surprises in the coming gubernatorial election. SDP as a party has no serving Governor in any of the states of the federation, no serving Minister, no serving National Assembly member, or any federal appointees that can pull the string for better chances and strengthen it ahead of the election. All the party’s support base is hinged on the people which may not be too reliable enough to win the election.
The party has therefore in its latest moves, appealed to the people of Ekiti State to donate generously towards its campaign funds for it to sway into the necessary victory in the forthcoming elections.
As if these are not enough, the party, according to reliable media reports, is presently enmeshed in a crisis of leadership as its Acting National Chairman, Dr. Olu Agunloye has been purportedly removed from the office over alleged anti-party activities. To add insult to injury, some of the SDP prominent members have been rejoining their former parties, PDP and APC, in the State.
Another party in view is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The party has for some time been locked down in one internal crisis or the other since it lost the grip of power to the ruling All Progressives Congress four years ago in Ekiti State. This protracted crisis has no doubt decimated the strength of the party particularly since it conducted its primary elections early this year which produced Chief Bisi Kolawole. Some of the aggrieved members of the party who believed the process of the primary election was compromised to favor the winner, Bisi Kolawole rather than Chief Segun Oni, angrily left the party to settle for the less political platform, SDP.
Unlike SDP, PDP is one of the major parties in Nigeria with a grip on power in some states. For the record, the party has been in and out of power in Ekiti State since 1999. It can therefore be said that there have been two dominant parties in Ekiti state, APC and PDP since 1999. In terms of structure and strength, therefore, the PDP is still more viable in the state than one can ascribe to the SDP, and this can help spring a surprise for the party in the coming election if all areas of their grievances are addressed.
However, if the deep internal crisis which has factionalized the party is not quickly addressed, it may be a big hurdle for it ahead of the upcoming governorship election in the state. This crisis which was attributed to former Governor Ayo Fayose’s one-man show has led to the mass defection of its members to SDP and some later APC while some members of the party are undecided voters.
The above scenario has further decimated and reduced the political strength and chances of the PDP in winning the upcoming governorship election on June 18.
However, the popularity of Mr. Ayo Fayose which the party is banking on to garner some votes for his candidate seems not to be working as expected and may not even be enough. Even with the structure and financial strength of the PDP, coming out victorious in this upcoming election may remain a tall dream. The lack of cohesion among some of the party’s leadership at the National level, particularly amongst some of its serving Governors, due to the supremacy battle, is also seen by political analysts as taking the party far away from possible victory.
The All Progressives Congress, APC, is in the face of all. The party which has its candidate in the former Secretary to Ekiti State Government, Mr. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, is expected to change the political narrative this time as no incumbent political party in the history of the state has ever transmitted power to a successor since 1999. This time, the APC looks better and good to break that jinx if all the necessary things are put in place with a formidable campaign strategy.
First and foremost, the party must work fast to end all the feuds amongst some of its leaders which have continued to hinder the cohesiveness of the party in the state particularly after the party’s Governorship Primary election that produced Mr. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, BAO.
In terms of political spread and structure, and being the one at the helm of government at the state and the federal level, all that the party needs to do is to work very hard to convince and sell its candidate through his manifesto, to the ever-conservative and sophisticated electorates of the state.
From the inception of democracy in 1999, most of the Governors that the state has produced rose to power based on sentiment and the initial string of popularity of the governors. Ekiti being a purely civil servant’s State has always hinged the bulk of its political dictates and victories based on the body language of the state’s civil servants who in most cases dictate the party that wins in any election.
However, if the party can quickly and strongly work on this workers’ sentiment, its chances of winning this upcoming governorship in Ekiti state are brighter than the other contesting parties. Like I said earlier, the party has all it takes to win this election conveniently. This is because the party presently ticked off all the possible boxes of contentions that make a party win or lose in a contest such as this.
The popularity of the party’s candidate, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, and his growing street credibility will also add up for the APC in the forthcoming governorship election. The current giant strides of the incumbent Governor, Dr. John Kayode Fayemi, particularly in the areas of infrastructural development is also a factor that may garner more votes for the party, especially amongst the die-hard followers of JKF and APC in the state.
With all these done by the ruling APC, it may be very difficult for either the SDP or PDP to truncate its success in this contest.